PWYP Indonesia noticed that the lifting indicator on oil and gas, and estimation on ICP as macro economic reference in financial notes and draft state budget (RAPBN) 2016 are too optimist. The target on oil lifting approximate 800 until 830 thousand barel per day, target on gas lifting approximate 1.100 until 1.300 barel per day, and target on ICP approximate 60-70 barel per day will be difficult to realize, considering the decline of oil and gas lifting and inability to meet the target for the last five years.

Wiko Saputra, The Economic Policy Researcher of PWYP Indonesia reminded the government to consider really carefully in deciding the macro economic reference. Not to mention the weakening of global economy as well as the issue of increasing Fed Fund Rate. “Indonesia current economy needs supportive fiscal policy, so that it can contribute to economic growth despite of the decrease of society’s purchasing power and slowly investment climate.” Said Wiko in Press Conference on 19 August in Jakarta.

On the other side, the economic dependency of Indonesia on natural resource is quite high. Arround 59,78% of state non-tax revenue at the national level (PNBP) rely on oil, gas, and mining sector (based on state budget 2014), and tax revenue from PPH oil and gas around 7,82% PPH mining around 10,57% (State budger 2014). So, these sectors will affect the realization of state revenue.

The dependency on natural resources will lead to a resource curse, because natural resource commodity is influenced by a thr fluctuation of global market. Government should be alerted the symptom of Dutch Disease phenomenon. “At least current situation describes if Rupiah was depreciate, the export will increase. But because of the dependency on law price of mining commodity, so we cant utilize these opportunity.” said Wiko.

Bad governance on oil, gas, ad mining is also impact to development and state revenue. Approximately 6 million hectares mining area are located in conservation and protection forest, which is it will affect to environmental stability. And around 4.276 mining license are non-Clean and Clear in administration, land overlapping, and do not pay royalty and land rent. From the KPK Coordination and Supervision’s data that 24% of 7.834 corporates are not own Taxpayer Registration Number (NPWP), and around 35% not report the notice letter (SPT).

PWYP Indonesia gives several notices in order the government could relize the fiscal and energy resillience, through: 1) mitigation the impact from oil price decline and depreciation rupiah toward dollar America to oil, gas, and mining sector development; 2) Diversification of economy that not depend on natural resource commodities, downstreaming in oil, gas, mining sector must implement consistently, and integrated with provide, 3) transparent and accountable in governance of oil, gas, and mining sector, include promote corporate’s compliant in pay for the state revenue and tax, and 4) Instituion’s governance and regulation that suppainty legal certainty not only for industry actor, but also regulation that protect right of community.

Barly Martawardaya, economy analyst of University Indonesia, said that government should fix the infrastructure particularly electricity in outside of Java that will strengthen downstream sector and diminish the dependency to export of crude oil. “Besides that, the government should optimum the old well, and expand for new well and promote the oil and gas law revision that encourage the social welfare and develop the renewable energy”

Fabby Tumiwa, Director of Institute for Essential Service Reform (IESR) sais “ In 2016 is year for infstructrure expenditure. Government should prioritize the development on energy infrastructure, particularly to raech the target build power generation with capacty 35.000 mega watt and energy mix to develop the renewable energy that environmental friendly. Government needs to work harder to realize the big ambition, among the previously track record. These is the challenge that has to face by government” said Fabby.