The National Medium-Term Development Plan (Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional/RPJMN) under President Prabowo Subianto’s administration has markedly changed compared to previous governments. For the first time, the RPJMN explicitly specified national coal production targets.
The document sets a coal production target of 717 million tons for 2025, rising to 743 million tons by 2029, based on a baseline of 775.2 million tons. The government aims to meet 100 percent of domestic coal needs, with these figures forming part of its energy self-sufficiency priority program.
This target-setting raises several questions: Where do these numbers come from? What’s the basis or formula for these calculations? If the answer hinges solely on the 2024 production baseline, is the policy direction determined merely by annual output without considering economic, environmental, or other policy factors?
It’s worth noting that the 2024 coal production targets and achievements don’t align with the National Energy General Plan (RUEN), which implements the National Energy Policy. The RPJMN’s domestic supply target also lacks specifics on projected domestic demand, only vaguely stating a 100 percent fulfillment capacity.
The 2025-2029 RPJMN coal production policy far exceeds the targets outlined in Presidential Regulation No. 22 of 2017 on the RUEN. The RUEN sets a 2025 coal production target of 400 million tons, with domestic demand projected at 205.2 million tons. By 2030, the production target remains 400 million tons, while domestic demand is expected to rise to 252.7 million tons.
The RUEN also regulates national coal production and domestic demand projections up to 2050, based on modeling from the primary energy supply mix for 2025-2050, as outlined in Government Regulation No. 79 of 2014 on National Energy Policy.
Regarding coal production policy, two regulations of equal hierarchy exist: Presidential Regulation No. 12 of 2025 on the RPJMN and Presidential Regulation No. 22 of 2017 on the RUEN. The RPJMN was enacted under Prabowo’s administration, while the RUEN, which was passed under the previous government, remains in effect. These regulations set conflicting coal production targets, creating potential legal uncertainty due to overlapping norms and inconsistent targets. As both regulations are hierarchically equal, one predates the other and is more general in scope (Legowo, 2017).
Energy Self-Sufficiency
One of Prabowo’s flagship programs is energy self-sufficiency, outlined in the Asta Cita document (Prabowo’s ‘Eight Aspirations’ vision). This goal shapes the RPJMN’s orientation for the next five years, and coal production targets are a key component of the program.
Self-sufficiency refers to a country’s ability to meet its own needs without relying heavily on imports. Based on this definition, considering Indonesia’s coal reserves and production compared to domestic demand over the past five years, the country has already achieved self-sufficiency.
However, Indonesia’s coal is exploited far beyond domestic needs. According to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources’ Minerba One Data Indonesia, coal production reached 565.69 million tons in 2020, rising to 606.28 million tons in 2021, 685.8 million tons in 2022, 770.9 million tons in 2023, and 807.34 million tons in 2024. For 2025, the government projects production at 735 million tons.
While domestic coal consumption is rising, it remains well below production levels. This is evident in fulfilling the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO). From 2015 to 2020, DMO fulfillment increased by 54 percent, from 86 million to 132 million tons. In 2025, DMO fulfillment rose to 239.7 million tons.
The government’s push to ramp up coal production signals a heavy reliance on this commodity for revenue. In 2022, coal accounted for 80 percent of non-tax state revenue from the mineral and coal subsector, according to the Ministry of Energy. This explains why the RPJMN continues to boost coal production beyond RUEN targets.
Overexploiting coal beyond national needs contradicts the spirit of energy self-sufficiency and moves Indonesia further from its 2060 net-zero emissions goal. As a non-renewable energy source, coal should no longer be a mainstay of state revenue. The government’s heavy dependence on this commodity also highlights the slow pace of Indonesia’s economic diversification.
Source: Tempo.co