The government sees an opportunity to increase coal production in order to boost state revenue. The 2026 RKAB will be revised.
PRESIDENT Prabowo Subianto has called for this year’s coal production volume to be increased in response to rising global energy prices triggered by geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Haryo Limanseto, spokesperson for the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, said that follow-up discussions on the President’s directive are currently being intensively deliberated at the ministerial level.
“This includes matters related to the RKAB (2026 Coal Work Plan and Budget),” said Haryo in a text message on Wednesday, March 25, 2026.
Gita Mahyarani, Executive Director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), said that one of the industry’s main concerns at present is the clarity of the final RKAB figures.
“This is because part of the RKAB has already been approved with a reduction in production volume,” said Gita.
Clarity regarding production figures—or consistency in the 2026 RKAB—has become crucial amid projections of global coal demand. According to the Gita, coal demand, particularly from Asia, is expected to continue to grow over the next one to two years. Moreover, energy supply disruptions caused by the Iran–Israel conflict may prompt a shift from liquefied natural gas (LNG) to coal.
“There is still room in global demand, so the most important thing is to maintain balance in order not to put pressure on prices while still being able to capture market opportunities.”
Gita explained.
The RKAB has become a major question mark for business actors because, at the beginning of 2026, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil Lahadalia, announced plans to cut coal production.
Based on an actual coal production realization of 790 million tons in 2025, the government planned to reduce output to around 600 million tons in 2026. This step was intended to maintain commodity price stability and support sustainability principles.
However, that plan did not last long. Recently, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto issued an instruction to increase coal production volumes after a meeting with President Prabowo at the State Palace in Jakarta on Thursday, March 19, 2026.
Airlangga said that the government would revise the 2026 Coal RKAB to adjust production and revenue targets. The reason is that conflict in the Middle East has driven up global oil prices and threatens to widen the 2026 State Budget (APBN) deficit.
Through coal commodities, the government aims to capture windfall profits. It sees this opportunity amid rising coal prices driven by disruptions in international crude oil and LNG markets.
“With the increase in prices, export tax on coal will also be calculated. The amount will be reviewed by the team,” said Airlangga.
Syafruddin Karimi, a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics and Business, Andalas University, said that the effectiveness of increasing state revenue through higher coal production depends heavily on selling prices and the structure of state levies.
If the government focuses solely on increasing volume, state revenue will continue to fluctuate in line with market conditions. In addition, there is a risk to state income if increased coal production depresses prices to the point where the added value from higher volume cannot offset the decline in average prices.
“The state will face the classic commodity trap. Exports may increase, but export value will not rise proportionally, and could even weaken.”
said Syafruddin.
Rather than relying on coal, Syafruddin argued that the government should rely more on high-value commodities while also creating greater space for domestic processing. Examples include nickel and crude palm oil (CPO).
More broadly, the government needs to expand its revenue base through resource-based manufacturing, high-value-added agriculture, and the mineral and energy processing industries.
“The state will be in a safer position if state revenue does not depend on a single commodity whose price is highly volatile,” he said.
Meanwhile, Aryanto Nugroho, National Coordinator of Publish What You Pay Indonesia, said that the apparent increase in state revenue from higher coal production is, in reality, misleading.
This is because such revenue often does not cover the costs of environmental recovery and the health impacts of coal mining.
“We cannot call it a profit if long-term damage has not been honestly calculated in the state’s financial balance sheet,” Aryanto said.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said that the production target in the 2026 RKAB, as well as the amount of coal export duty, would be decided in an interministerial meeting on Thursday this week. What is certain, he said, is that the government is targeting the coal export duty regulation to come into effect starting April 1, 2026.
“Coal will clearly be subject to export charges in accordance with the President’s directive.” Purbaya said at the Ministry of Finance office on Wednesday, March 25, 2026.
He also noted the possibility of implementing export duties on nickel commodities, as the proposal has already been submitted to the head of state.
Source: Tempo