Business leaders are highlighting the certainty of coal production quotas in the 2026 RKAB. Policy inconsistencies are seen as a negative signal.
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia stated that there are no policy changes regarding the regulation of coal supply and demand. Bahlil made this statement following a closed-door meeting with President Prabowo Subianto in Hambalang, Bogor, on Wednesday, March 25, 2026.
“If prices remain stable, that’s good. We will implement some relaxation, but it will be measured against production planning,” said Bahlil, as quoted from the Presidential Secretariat’s YouTube channel.
Previously, Bahlil stated that this year’s coal production quota would be cut. The 2025 coal production target of 790 million tons will be reduced to approximately 600 million tons in 2026. This reduction has been mandated by the government in each company’s work plan and budget (RKAB).
According to Bahlil, the reduction in the coal production quota is being implemented to balance coal supply and demand. “Let’s not sell our goods at bargain prices,” said Bahlil, as quoted by Antara.
The reduction in this year’s coal production volume was confirmed by Gita Mahyarani, Executive Director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association. She said that some of the Annual Work Plans (RKAB) have already been approved with the volume cuts in place. “The focus right now is on clarifying the final figures,” Gita said on Wednesday, March 25, 2026.
The clarity of the figures or targets in the 2026 Coal RKAB has come under scrutiny from business leaders after Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto announced plans to increase coal production volumes. This initiative emerged as the government’s response to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, which has driven up global energy prices. This policy is also designed to manage the 2026 State Budget (APBN) deficit and optimize state revenue.
“Regarding the rise in fuel prices and commodity prices, the President has requested that coal production volume be increased. This means there will be adjustments to the RKAB,” said Airlangga following a meeting with President Prabowo Subianto at the State Palace in Jakarta on Thursday, March 19, 2026.
The inconsistency in the government’s policy direction regarding coal production has drawn criticism. Wishnu Try, Director of Advocacy at the Mining Center of Economic and Law Studies, noted that inconsistent policies could trap business owners.
Especially if the revision of production targets is based on the government’s need for fresh funds to cover the 2026 state budget deficit. “It could result in losses if investments have already been made and the production targets are suddenly lowered,” Wishnu told Tempo on Wednesday, March 25, 2026.
Aryanto Nugroho, National Coordinator of Publish What You Pay Indonesia, believes that the government’s plan to increase the coal production quota is a step backward in national energy governance. Amid global commitments to decarbonization, this policy indicates that the government remains trapped in a short-term mindset.
Furthermore, it maintains a chronic dependence on fossil fuels. “The policy to increase the coal production quota is highly contradictory to the spirit of the net-zero emissions target,” said Aryanto.
According to Aryanto, the government should not use the Middle East conflict as an excuse to boost coal production to bolster the state budget. Instead, he said, the global crisis should be used as momentum to accelerate the adoption of renewable energy.
“Increasing coal production will make it difficult for clean energy to compete because the market continues to be flooded with cheap fossil fuels due to oversupply,” he said.
Furthermore, Aryanto added that the government’s policy to increase coal production volumes poses a risk to the investment climate. He noted that repeated changes to production quotas through revisions to the RKAB would create legal uncertainty. This situation would send a negative signal to investors.
In addition, green investors will view Indonesia as a country that has not yet made a serious commitment to transitioning from fossil fuels to clean energy. “This hinders the inflow of significant capital into the more sustainable renewable energy sector,” said Aryanto. ●
Source: Tempo